Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 3.596411 4.323335 5.135635 6.107103 7.233617 8.494970 10.010197
2025-03-16 2.547489 3.468214 4.607274 6.105473 8.007805 10.325033 13.341255
2025-03-23 1.894552 2.874528 4.197221 6.080391 8.654137 12.005238 16.646661
2025-03-30 1.389967 2.331809 3.708173 5.811089 8.875420 13.098736 19.260770
2025-04-06 1.101858 2.021811 3.463467 5.804163 9.404643 14.606608 22.526454
2025-04-13 0.881552 1.760740 3.231342 5.755733 9.832660 15.974723 25.680910
2025-04-20 0.776536 1.668083 3.244071 6.077865 10.841324 18.265345 30.353404
2025-04-27 0.673563 1.553736 3.195062 6.279858 11.664223 20.325156 34.821367
2025-05-04 0.601882 1.482742 3.207468 6.580718 12.669075 22.738471 40.002683
2025-05-11 0.504785 1.335802 3.050641 6.549437 13.090284 24.225177 43.796034
2025-05-18 0.405470 1.158567 2.801463 6.304804 13.095933 25.003111 46.464291
2025-05-25 0.321128 0.993252 2.544991 6.004031 12.954853 25.500430 48.673153
2025-06-01 0.271755 0.903867 2.439996 6.002484 13.391916 27.071210 52.880719
2025-06-08 0.231852 0.828648 2.353504 6.027581 13.882899 28.777593 57.447730
2025-06-15 0.196191 0.754648 2.255552 6.012201 14.287570 30.351007 61.877195
2025-06-22 0.155309 0.650709 2.061677 5.748725 14.147014 30.879021 64.428353
2025-06-29 0.132073 0.595766 1.983335 5.742995 14.548260 32.471915 69.047245
2025-07-06 0.111104 0.540941 1.893715 5.695405 14.849831 33.885014 73.406392
2025-07-13 0.104321 0.536685 1.947232 6.014772 16.001643 37.077464 81.362955
2025-07-20 0.094706 0.517976 1.954524 6.215008 16.897937 39.804677 88.559207
2025-07-27 0.088458 0.511110 1.996787 6.513206 18.047950 43.126091 97.098871
2025-08-03 0.075500 0.469732 1.921785 6.482211 18.412995 44.824087 102.490731
2025-08-10 0.060571 0.411827 1.779060 6.239759 18.239339 45.359251 105.558113